Juries in England and Wales are more likely to convict than acquit a defendant of rape, and this has been the case for at least 15 years, according to a large-scale analysis of all jury verdicts by University College London’s Professor Cheryl Thomas.
The analysis found that the jury conviction rate for rape is increasing, alongside an increase in jury verdicts in rape cases.
Despite rape being one of the most high-profile issues in the UK justice system today, there had not been reliable aggregated data on how often juries convict defendants charged with rape in England and Wales.
The research in this study, published in the Criminal Law Review, examined all charges, pleas and jury verdicts for all defendants in the Crown Court in England and Wales over a 15-year period from 2007-2021. The study analysed almost six million charges against defendants and included every verdict reached by a jury on rape charges in this period (68,863 jury verdicts by deliberation).
In 2021, the most recent year with full data, the jury conviction rate for all rape charges was 75 per cent, an increase from 55 per cent in 2007. The finding that juries convict more often than they acquit defendants in rape cases was also true regardless of the age or sex of the rape complainant.
The research was commissioned by the senior judiciary following a petition to Parliament arguing that jurors were biased in rape cases and that jury conviction rates for rape were very low.
The research forms part of a wider study of jury decision-making funded by the Nuffield Foundation.
Other key findings/analysis from Professor Thomas’ research:
Professor Thomas, director of the UCL Jury Project, said, “These findings have important implications not just for the Government’s Rape Action Plan and the Law Commission’s current review of sexual offence prosecutions. They are important for all rape complainants. Knowing the truth about jury decision-making in rape cases is important for anyone who may be reluctant to continue with a case through to trial because they incorrectly believe that juries are unwilling to convict the accused in rape cases.
“It’s clear that there are serious problems with how rape complaints are handled by police and how long cases take to reach court. But juries are not responsible for this. They can only decide the cases put to them, and this research shows that if rape complainants can put their evidence to a jury, they have a good likelihood of securing a conviction.”